So, what are the excusiasts saying? First a definition of my newly contracted word, excusiast. This contraction combines excuse with enthusiast and by definition are those who get enthused making excuses.
You know it was the radio, it was the antenna, it was the time of day, it was the band all explaining why the Logbook Of The World (LOTW) is pretty thin.
We had some early predictions by those who predict such things that Cycle 25 would be worse than Cycle 24. This dire prediction even caused a schism amongst the predictors. A dissent group formed that said Cycle 25 will be greater than Cycle 24.
The sunspot counts in recent months suggest better than Cycle 24 and the upstart dissents may be on to something. So, what is it? The Red Line is the prediction, and the blacklines are actuals -- so the dissidents appear to have been vindicated.
I liken both groups who are forecasting sunspots much like the weather guys and their predictions. Forget what the experts say (both groups) and reflect a bit of what you hear in the bands. Yes, bring the umbrella as your bones tell you it will rain but the forecast says sun all day.
Having personally experienced Cycle 19 I have a benchmark of a really hot cycle.
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Even squinting, indeed Cycle 19 > Cycle 25. We may be caught up in the scientific pissing contest of 24 versus 25 but the real proof is Cycle 25 is puny compared to Cycle 19.
I have a bit of distrust with the guys in the white lab coats and my evaluations are based on sitting in front of the radio and listening. The true test is what do I hear which then if you believe in you can hear them you can work them will result in DX contacts
Unlike many hams I do not have a Tiny SA to hook to my antenna, but I do have some pretty good receivers that tell me the God-awful truth about Cycle 25.
One of the most useful receivers is my Hermes Lite 2.0 SDR. I set the spectrum to 384 kHz and call up 20M. Just by looking at the blips I can see the activity across the whole band. The antenna is a 40M Delta Loop and I test the band at various times of the day. The blips do not abound as you might expect from a hot cycle.
But more importantly is I have some mental benchmarks of the stations I do hear. EA3JE is typically heard here on the left coast, and I have been hearing only one Russian station R5AJ. Missing in action are the powerhouse stations from Kuwait, Israel, Germany, South Africa and the Scandanavian countries. Let us not forget the Italians or those from the UK. On 40M I do hear VK's and the JA's and of course South America. Toward the right side are the Shortwave broadcast stations.
A dead zone appears to be India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Then again FT-8 has seriously siphoned off many DX stations. Noteworthy 7.074 MHz always has a large blip on the SDR. Look at the large blip near the left side of the photo.
But my benchmark, again Cycle 19, was 24/7 and with low power on 10M -- work the world. Many times, (in 2024) during the daytime -- 20 and 40M are like graveyards and you have to whistle to hear a noise.
So, the escusiasts will say they are working lots of DX and it is me but likely they have no Cycle 19 experience. Turn on 20M and what do you really hear besides CQ POTA?
TYGNYB nor a Pixel 7.
73's
Pete N6QW