For most of my life I have been afflicted with PMA... Positive Mental Attitude! Up until now I have always been a glass half full guy, but these last 10 months have changed me into a Negative Ned! In one word the future of amateur radio is "bleak".
Our politics have become toxic and under the guise of fixing some problems (immigration and inflation) new and much more devasting and larger problems have been created like authoritarianism. The current government shutdown is not good for the majority of Americans save for the ultra-rich who always seem to profit off of the backs of us common folks.
While you may not be able to connect this to our hobby, the connection is hiding in the bushes. Let's examine the impact.
Basically, the impacts follow these three issues.
1. The lack of individual innovation as compared to when ham radio was born.
2. The impact of tariffs is stifling new product development.
3. Other factors (AI, bankruptcies, efficiency driven layoffs) which impacts disposable income that otherwise would be available for ham gear.
While originating in the US, the tariffs are making parts and assemblies from offshore more expensive. You need only to look at the number of bankruptcies being filed. Two major recent bankruptcies rival the 2008 financial meltdown. The new job growth is a trickle (and that is not Fake News). US Manufacturing is on the decline for the past several months, and the AI factor will put large numbers of people out of work. Another alarming metric is that many are falling behind in their car payments!
Uncertainty is the problem and a government focused on revenge is not thinking of your individual welfare. This uncertainty belies any purchases other than for what is absolutely essential. A sad reality: A new $7K SDR radio is not essential for life!
The incentive to bring products to market is driven by a viable market potential. As the old saying portends: The US sneezes and the world catches pneumonia. Our situation in the US is multiplied worldwide. The ultimate impact is disposable income and when that dries up hobby items are not on the buy list.
New ham equipment development and manufacturing will be greatly diminished, a result of the tariffs and reduced demand. That gear which will be available is priced for the super-rich. There might be some niche businesses like repairing 15-year-old ICOM IC7300's. But you might find that many parts in those radios were custom made and no longer available. You see this with early ICOM Radios such as the IC-701. You have to own three just to keep one on the air. Using and keeping the older gear will be common which has the deleterious effect of slowing the introduction of new technology in our rigs and raising the prices of junk gear.
Sadly, ARRL, the chickens will come home to roost for when you focused solely on contests and operating, the technical side of the hobby simply went away. In the early days of our hobby, everything was home built. But when the apocalypse hits there is no skill base to build rigs from the junk box. Individual innovation will grind to halt simply from the lack of skill and the availability of disposable income. Keep in mind many of the advances in ham gear post WWII came out of some US ham's garage not from offshore.
Personal experience here. Several years ago, I designed and published an article on a Direct Conversion Receiver. Purposefully, I did not publish the Arduino sketch on a GitHub. Simple idea: email me and I will send you the code. This way I know how many actually requested the code, from what location and by call sign. I received 200 requests for the code and think less than 30 radios were actually built.
The publication which carried the article has a circulation of about 3000. The math is 30/3000 = 1% and that is consistent with less than 1% of the overall ham population can and does actually homebrew radios.
Friends N2CQR and KK4DAS designed and developed an amazing simple Direct Conversion Receiver complete with you tube videos covering the process. The number of views is in the neighborhood of 10,000 and the documented proof of life builds is over 100. Do the math and you see the same approximate 1%. (100/10000)
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No Appliances Boxes Here!
Here is a great example from several days ago when I posted the video from LA6NCA who was homebrewing a vacuum tube transmitter. In the course of the build, he needed a 325PF fixed capacitor as a part of the output tank network. He made the capacitor using copper foil and Teflon sheeting as an insulator. Could you do that? Given the trajectory of the hobby, you may well have to know how to homebrew a capacitor.
It is like a snowball rolling down the hill which starts small and slowly and then it steam rolls over you. There tariffs are here and Dayton 2026 will be kind of thin with any new affordable products. The Dayton planners will likely be looking at smaller crowds to attend. You will also see the prices for used gear inching upwards. Seriously, $300 for a Junker FT-101EE.
Regrettably the ham radio outlook is bleak and not unlike an AGC circuit it is fast to occur and a very slow recovery, if ever. Once you lose a segment of participants you may never have a full return. Keep in mind of the close to 800,000 US Hams only 1/2 have an HF license with the other half likely to use the Baofeng UV5R.
Them that know can make things go.
73's
Pete N6QW