Several years ago, there were a few in the scientific community who touted that Cycle 25 would be amazing. Well, we are very near its peak and the results are anything but that. In a common vulgar vernacular, it was suggested a pair of 44DD's, and it turns out to be an anemic pair of 29A's.
The current chart from early May suggests we are at the peak and it's all downhill from there. The smoothed number is a peak of slightly better than 150.
In contrast, I was 1st on the air in 1959 (Cycle 19) and a comparable chart looks like this below. That smoothed peak is nearly 300 or 2X Cycle 25, thus my 44DD versus 29A analogy. In fact, a good comparison is to look at Cycle 20 sitting next to it which has a smoothed peak near 150. Hey scientists that is the comparison.
In fact, Cycle 25 is now seen as "common" and perhaps a miniscule less than Cycle 24.
This is data and perhaps an embarrassment to those few in the scientific community who suggested a revisit of 1959.
I have a more practical yardstick, and it has been named as an amateur tool. My Tool = My Ears. When I sit down in front of a radio (many of them high quality commercial radios), I simply do not hear the DX stations.
Using the commercial radios (Drake R4C and Collins) eliminates the excuse from science --- well it's the homebrew radio you are using. Next is the science excuse -- it is your antenna. Wrong, for the few times when the band really is open, I work the DX.
So, guys we were handed a prediction (and that is just what it was) that likely was over optimistic and generated perhaps based more on guesswork than scientific work. Was it liking the view to that of earthquake predictions -- the big one is coming and after 100 years of nothing probability suggests it is near but maybe not just now. In the last 6 cycles we have not seen anything close. I may be wrong, but I believe Cycle 19 was the highest since 1755.
For me predicting spectacular solar cycles rivaling Cycle 19 is like relying on readings from a Nano VNA. Get a second source verification. Listen to your ears and use your DSO.
Them that know can make it go.
73's
Pete N6QW